A new chapter in Turkish-US defense ties
The NATO Ankara Summit in July 2026 has emerged as an unexpected turning point in one of the most protracted disputes between Turkey and the United States. Representative Mike Turner, a senior Republican on the House Armed Services Committee and chair of the Strategic Forces Subcommittee, revealed that the long-frozen F-35 program for Turkey might be thawing. 'There is now a much more concrete foundation for Turkey's return to the F-35 family,' Turner stated during bilateral talks on the sidelines of the summit, signaling a potential resolution to a crisis that began in 2019 when Ankara purchased the Russian S-400 missile defense system.
Turner's remarks, made to a small group of reporters in Ankara, represent the most explicit signal yet from a US lawmaker with direct oversight of defense exports that Washington's rigid 'either S-400 or F-35' stance is evolving. The discussions reportedly focused on a new technical framework governing the operational status and deployment conditions of the S-400 systems, a formula designed to address Congressional concerns without forcing Turkey into a politically impossible corner. The backdrop to this diplomatic breakthrough is the transformed security landscape in Europe following the Ukraine war, where Turkey's strategic weight—particularly in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean—has made it an indispensable NATO partner.
The Turner factor and congressional politics
Mike Turner's involvement is significant precisely because of his historical skepticism toward arms deals with Turkey. As someone who has voted for defense budgets that maintained CAATSA sanctions on Turkish defense entities, his pivot reflects broader shifts in Washington's strategic calculus. During his Ankara meetings, Turner conveyed that Congressional concerns could be addressed through a 'transparent and verifiable mechanism' ensuring the S-400 does not compromise F-35 technology. Pentagon sources indicate that Turkey is prepared to update its previous commitments, potentially agreeing to keep the Russian system non-operational and open to periodic inspection by American technical teams—a creative solution that might also placate skeptical allies like Greece and France.
Turkey's defense industry between KAAN and the F-35
Turkey's expulsion from the F-35 program in 2019 was a watershed moment that cost Turkish aerospace companies billions of dollars in supply chain contracts. Yet it also accelerated the country's indigenous defense programs, most notably the KAAN National Combat Aircraft. By mid-2026, KAAN prototypes have completed successful test flights, demonstrating Turkey's growing aerospace capabilities. However, serial production and full operational capability remain years away, leaving a critical fifth-generation fighter gap that the F-35 could fill. This gap has become more acute as Greece began receiving its first F-35 deliveries in early 2026, altering the military balance in the Aegean.
The potential return to the F-35 program represents more than just aircraft acquisition. It would reintegrate Turkish companies into the global aerospace supply chain, reversing the economic damage of the past seven years. The original partnership model, where Turkey was a Level 3 partner producing fuselage components and engine parts, may not be fully restored—some analysts argue those production rights have been permanently redistributed to other partner nations. However, Turkey's dramatic advances in drone technology, including the combat-proven Bayraktar TB2 and the carrier-capable Kızılelma, give Ankara significant leverage in negotiating a new partnership framework that goes beyond a simple buyer-seller relationship.
The economic stakes and technology transfer
The financial dimensions of the F-35 deal are staggering. Turkey originally planned to purchase over 100 aircraft at an estimated cost exceeding $10 billion. The current discussions suggest an initial tranche of 40 F-35A conventional takeoff variants and 20 F-35B short takeoff and vertical landing (STOVL) jets for the TCG Anadolu amphibious assault ship. For the Turkish Navy, the F-35B represents a game-changing capability, transforming the Anadolu from a drone carrier into a full-fledged light aircraft carrier capable of projecting power across the Eastern Mediterranean. The total package, including training, maintenance, and infrastructure, could reach $15-20 billion over the next decade, making it one of the largest defense deals in NATO history.
Resolving the S-400 impasse
The S-400 systems remain in Turkish Armed Forces inventory, though their operational status has been deliberately ambiguous since delivery. The CAATSA sanctions imposed by Washington have restricted Turkish defense exports and technology transfers, though limited waivers granted in 2025 for certain sub-components signaled a gradual thaw. Experts suggest the most viable resolution is a 'Greek model'—whereby Turkey retains the S-400 as a standalone national defense asset, isolated from NATO's integrated air defense architecture, while accepting technical restrictions on the F-35 variants delivered to Turkey to mitigate espionage concerns.
This delicate compromise would allow both sides to claim victory: Washington could argue the S-400 is effectively neutralized as a threat to F-35 security, while Ankara could maintain it never abandoned a sovereign defense procurement decision. The key innovation, according to sources familiar with the negotiations, is a verification protocol allowing US technical teams periodic access to ensure the S-400's radar systems are not actively collecting data on NATO aircraft. This unprecedented arrangement, if finalized, could serve as a template for resolving similar disputes within the alliance.
NATO's southern flank and the broader picture
Turkey's constructive role in Sweden and Finland's NATO accession, combined with its indispensable position in the alliance's deterrence strategy against Russia, forms the geopolitical backdrop to the F-35 negotiations. Instability in the Middle East, ongoing counterterrorism operations in Syria and Iraq, and energy competition in the Eastern Mediterranean have made modernizing Turkey's air power a NATO-wide strategic priority. The 2026 summit has crystallized this reality, with multiple allied leaders privately acknowledging that a Turkey equipped with fifth-generation fighters serves collective security interests far more than an isolated and resentful Ankara.
The roadmap from 2026 onward
The first half of 2026 witnessed intense diplomatic traffic between Ankara and Washington on defense matters. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's February visit to Washington and the CIA Director's April trip to Ankara both placed the F-35 issue high on the agenda. However, Turner's explicit public comments at the NATO Summit suggest the process has moved from technical discussions to the political decision-making phase. Turkish foreign ministry officials remain cautiously optimistic, emphasizing that 'no final decision has been made, but negotiations are progressing in a positive atmosphere.'
The critical legislative milestone will be the US Congress's 2027 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). If provisions granting sanctions waivers and authorizing F-35 sales to Turkey are included, the formal process could begin in early 2027. The anticipated timeline envisions deliveries between 2029 and 2032, a schedule that aligns with KAAN's transition to serial production and allows the Turkish Air Force to manage its fifth-generation transformation seamlessly. For the Turkish Navy, F-35B deliveries would coincide with the TCG Anadolu's full operational capability, potentially making Turkey the only NATO member besides the United States and the United Kingdom to operate STOVL jets from a carrier platform—a capability that would fundamentally alter naval power dynamics in the region.
What comes next in the process
The coming months will be decisive. Congressional hearings on the NDAA are expected to feature extensive debate on Turkey's F-35 status, with opponents likely to demand ironclad guarantees on S-400 isolation. The Biden administration's posture—and the stance of the next administration, with presidential elections approaching in November 2026—will be crucial. Turkey's ability to maintain its balancing act between NATO commitments and its relationship with Russia, particularly in Syria and energy cooperation, will also influence the pace of progress. One thing is clear: the door that slammed shut in 2019 is, for the first time in seven years, genuinely ajar.
