The handshake lasted a full twelve seconds — long enough for the cameras to capture what both sides wanted to signal. On the opening day of the landmark Ankara summit, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and a high-level US delegation led by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth set the stage for what could be the most significant reset in transatlantic defense relations since Turkey's removal from the F-35 program in 2019. 'We expect a favorable decision from the NATO summit,' Erdogan declared, injecting a rare note of optimism into a seven-year standoff.
The F-35 impasse: A timeline of fractures and a path forward
How Turkey's expulsion reshaped the supply chain
Turkey's ejection from the Joint Strike Fighter program was one of the most consequential ruptures in recent NATO history. When Ankara took delivery of the Russian S-400 air defense system in July 2019, Washington responded by suspending Turkey's industrial participation — a partnership that had seen Turkish firms like TAI, ASELSAN, and Kale Aerospace produce 937 components for the F-35 fuselage and engine. The Pentagon scrambled to re-source these parts, awarding contracts to Italian and British suppliers at an estimated 30% cost premium. By 2026, the ripple effects are still being felt: delivery delays to Poland, Greece, and the United Kingdom have been partially attributed to the supply chain disruption caused by Turkey's removal.
Erdogan's remarks on Tuesday directly addressed the financial dimension. 'We paid $1.4 billion. That investment must be honored,' he stated, referring to Turkey's contribution as a Level 3 partner in the program's development phase. The figure is not contested by Washington, but the legal pathway to restitution remains tangled in the web of Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) penalties imposed in December 2020. Congressional sources indicate that a waiver package, drafted by the Senate Armed Services Committee, has been gaining bipartisan support since mid-2025. The proposal would allow Turkey to re-enter the program under a 'supervised co-production' model, with enhanced monitoring protocols to ensure S-400 systems remain non-integrated with NATO infrastructure.
NATO's southern flank: Why Turkey matters more than ever
The Black Sea calculus in 2026
The strategic context surrounding the Ankara summit extends far beyond fighter jets. As the Russia-Ukraine war grinds through its third year, the Black Sea has become a contested battlespace where NATO's presence is simultaneously essential and legally constrained. Turkey's enforcement of the Montreux Convention — which limits warship passage through the Turkish Straits — has been described by alliance commanders as 'indispensable' in preventing escalation. Ankara's balancing act, maintaining open channels with both Kyiv and Moscow while hosting the Ukrainian grain corridor negotiations, has elevated its geopolitical leverage to levels not seen since the Cold War.
The eastern Mediterranean adds another layer of complexity. Greece's receipt of its first F-35A aircraft in late 2025 shifted the air power balance in the Aegean, triggering alarm in Ankara. Turkish defense planners have been pursuing a three-pronged modernization strategy: F-16 Block 70 upgrade kits for the existing fleet, acquisition of Eurofighter Typhoons as an interim solution, and the eventual fielding of both F-35s and the indigenous KAAN fifth-generation fighter. The total price tag could reach $23 billion over the next decade. US officials acknowledge that maintaining credible deterrence on NATO's southeastern flank requires addressing Turkey's capability gaps — a reality that has softened opposition in Congress to a limited F-35 deal.
Beyond the jets: Turkey's defense industrial rise and global ambitions
Drones, warships, and the KAAN project
While the F-35 dominates headlines, Turkey's indigenous defense sector has undergone a transformation that makes the country a far different partner than it was in 2019. Baykar's TB2 and Akıncı drones have been combat-proven in Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Ukraine, with export contracts signed with 34 countries. The KIZILELMA unmanned fighter jet completed live-fire tests in early 2026, marking a milestone in autonomous air combat. Meanwhile, TAI's KAAN — Turkey's homegrown fifth-generation fighter — is on track for initial delivery by 2028. These programs are not alternatives to F-35 integration; they are complementary pillars of an increasingly self-reliant defense ecosystem.
The economic stakes are substantial. Turkey's defense and aerospace exports reached a record $7.2 billion in 2025, and re-entry into the F-35 supply chain could push that figure past $10 billion by 2027. Companies like ROKETSAN, which has developed precision-guided munitions compatible with F-35 internal weapon bays, stand to gain immediate access to a global market of 3,000 planned aircraft. For the Turkish Treasury, defense exports offer a rare bright spot in a challenging economic landscape, contributing to the current account balance and supporting high-skilled manufacturing employment. 'This is not just about jets,' a senior defense industry executive told reporters on the summit sidelines. 'This is about anchoring Turkey's technological future within the Western alliance.'
The S-400 conundrum and the 'Crete model' compromise
Can technical workarounds break the political deadlock?
The central obstacle remains the physical presence of Russian S-400 batteries on Turkish soil. Ankara has consistently refused to decommission or transfer the systems, citing sovereign defense choices and the refusal of previous US administrations to sell Patriot systems on acceptable terms. However, a compromise framework — informally dubbed the 'Crete model' — has resurfaced in diplomatic channels. Under this arrangement, first floated in 2022, the S-400s would be relocated to a NATO-controlled facility, potentially Incirlik Air Base, where they would be stored under joint US-Turkish monitoring without integration into alliance radar networks.
Critics in Congress argue that any arrangement short of full S-400 removal violates the spirit of CAATSA. Supporters counter that the strategic imperative of keeping Turkey anchored to NATO outweighs the symbolic victory of maintaining sanctions. 'We are dealing with a fundamentally different geopolitical reality than in 2019,' noted a senior European diplomat familiar with the negotiations. 'The question is no longer whether Turkey deserves F-35s, but whether the alliance can afford to keep Turkey at arm's length.' The summit's final communiqué is expected to task a technical working group with developing 'verifiable non-integration protocols' within six months — language carefully crafted to satisfy both Ankara's red lines and Washington's legal requirements.
As the first day of the summit concluded with a working dinner at the Presidential Complex, the mood among delegates was described as 'constructively cautious.' Erdogan's public optimism, while calibrated for domestic consumption, reflected a genuine shift in the diplomatic winds. The second day promises detailed discussions on force posture, intelligence sharing, and the future of Incirlik Air Base. For an alliance that has weathered multiple crises of confidence, the Ankara summit may yet be remembered as the moment the cracks began to heal.
