When NATO's top brass convenes in Ankara this July, the gathering will test whether the alliance can adapt to a world where power is increasingly fragmented and middle powers like Turkey are demanding a bigger seat at the table. The summit, hosted in the Turkish capital against the backdrop of an unresolved war in Ukraine and mounting tensions in the Indo-Pacific, marks a pivotal moment for an alliance struggling to redefine its purpose nearly eight decades after its founding. For Turkey, it is a chance to translate its strategic geography, military heft, and diplomatic agility into lasting institutional influence within the Western security architecture.
The choice of Ankara as host is far from ceremonial. Turkey commands NATO's second-largest standing army, controls access to the Black Sea through the Montreux Convention, and sits at the crossroads of three volatile regions — the Middle East, the Caucasus, and the Balkans. Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Turkey's role as a gatekeeper of the Turkish Straits has become indispensable, preventing the Black Sea from escalating into an all-out naval confrontation between NATO and Russian forces. That unique position gives President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan leverage that few other alliance leaders can claim.
The summit unfolds as NATO confronts a cascade of strategic challenges. The United States, under its post-2024 administration, has pushed European allies to shoulder a greater share of the defense burden, with defense spending targets now exceeding 3% of GDP for several member states. Simultaneously, China's naval expansion and its deepening partnership with Russia are forcing NATO to contemplate a global role that stretches far beyond its original transatlantic mandate. Turkey, with its established ties to both Beijing and Moscow alongside its NATO membership, occupies a diplomatic space that the alliance can neither replicate nor ignore.
Turkey's defense industry leverage: From consumer to competitor
Ankara arrives at the summit with a transformed defense sector that has shifted Turkey's position within the alliance from a technology consumer to an increasingly competitive producer. Turkish defense exports surpassed $7 billion in 2025, driven by the combat-proven success of Bayraktar TB2 and Akıncı drones, Kızılelma unmanned fighter jet prototypes, and a growing portfolio of armored vehicles and electronic warfare systems. This industrial renaissance has given Turkish negotiators concrete assets to bring to the bargaining table, rather than relying solely on geopolitical arguments.
Yet unresolved grievances linger beneath the surface. Turkey's expulsion from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program in 2019 following its acquisition of Russian S-400 air defense systems remains a raw nerve in Ankara. The subsequent imposition of CAATSA sanctions by Washington created a trust deficit that still colors Turkish defense procurement decisions. Turkish officials have signaled that the summit must deliver tangible progress on long-standing requests: access to Meteor beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile technology, acceleration of the Eurofighter Typhoon procurement process, and a clear pathway for Turkish defense firms to participate in European Union defense initiatives such as the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO).
Red lines and red carpets: What Ankara wants from Washington and Brussels
Turkey's pre-summit negotiating dossier, prepared by the Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), outlines a comprehensive wish list. Beyond the headline-grabbing fighter jet and missile technology requests, Ankara seeks a fundamental restructuring of NATO's Ballistic Missile Defense command-and-control architecture, with Turkey demanding a more prominent role commensurate with hosting critical radar installations at Kürecik. The status of İncirlik Air Base, a vital hub for NATO operations in the Middle East, is also on the agenda, with Turkey pushing for a new framework agreement that better reflects the base's strategic value and addresses Turkish sovereignty concerns.
Defense analysts note that Turkey's bargaining position is strengthened by the demonstrated effectiveness of its military in complex operational environments. Turkish forces have accumulated extensive combat experience in Syria, Iraq, and Libya, while Turkish drone technology has reshaped battlefield dynamics in multiple conflicts. This operational credibility, combined with the sheer size of the Turkish Armed Forces — over 400,000 active personnel — makes Turkey's contributions to NATO's collective defense irreplaceable in an era of growing conventional threats on the alliance's eastern and southern flanks.
Black Sea security and the Montreux Convention: Turkey's trump card
No issue at the Ankara summit will carry greater strategic weight than the future of Black Sea security. Since 2022, Turkey's strict implementation of the 1936 Montreux Convention — which governs the passage of warships through the Turkish Straits — has effectively prevented a NATO-Russian naval confrontation in the Black Sea. By closing the straits to belligerent warships under Article 19 of the convention, Turkey has contained the conflict's maritime dimension while maintaining its own delicate balancing act between its NATO obligations and its pragmatic relationship with Moscow.
But 2026 brings new pressures. Romania and Bulgaria, both Black Sea littoral NATO members, have intensified calls for a permanent allied naval presence in the region. Some Western allies argue that Montreux's restrictions hamper NATO's ability to project power and deter Russian aggression. Turkey firmly rejects this interpretation, warning that any attempt to dilute the convention would transform the Black Sea into a flashpoint and potentially trigger a direct NATO-Russia clash. Instead, Ankara is expected to propose enhanced Turkish naval patrols, joint exercises with allied navies on a rotational basis, and the institutionalization of the trilateral mine-clearing initiative it launched with Romania and Bulgaria.
Grain corridor diplomacy: A model for NATO's future role
The Black Sea Grain Initiative, brokered by Turkey and the United Nations in 2022, demonstrated Ankara's unique capacity to mediate between warring parties while advancing alliance interests. Though the original deal has since evolved into a more fragmented set of arrangements, the diplomatic template it created — with Turkey acting as an honest broker between Ukraine, Russia, and Western powers — offers lessons for NATO's engagement in future conflicts. Turkish officials plan to present this model at the summit as evidence that the alliance needs more flexible partnership mechanisms, particularly for regions where direct NATO involvement could prove escalatory.
Energy security and the Eastern Mediterranean puzzle
Energy security will command as much attention as military matters at the Ankara summit. Russia's weaponization of energy supplies during the Ukraine war has accelerated Europe's diversification efforts, elevating Turkey's role as a transit hub. The Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) and TurkStream now form critical arteries of Europe's non-Russian gas supply, while Turkey's investments in liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals and renewable energy capacity position it as a stabilizing force in regional energy markets. Ankara will argue that NATO should formally recognize energy infrastructure protection as a core alliance mission, with Turkey's geography making it the natural hub for such efforts.
The Eastern Mediterranean adds a layer of complexity that the summit cannot ignore. Turkey's maritime boundary agreement with Libya's Government of National Unity, overlapping claims with Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration over exclusive economic zones, and the discovery of significant offshore gas reserves have created a web of unresolved disputes within the alliance. Rather than allowing these tensions to fester, Turkey is expected to propose a NATO-facilitated dialogue mechanism for the Eastern Mediterranean, framing equitable resource sharing as a matter of alliance cohesion and energy supply security. Whether Greece and the Republic of Cyprus will engage with such a proposal remains uncertain, but Turkey's willingness to place the issue on NATO's agenda signals a shift toward multilateral engagement.
The green defense agenda: Turkey's unexpected diplomatic card
In a move designed to broaden Turkey's appeal beyond traditional security debates, Ankara will showcase its progress in greening the defense sector. Prototypes of electric armored vehicles, solar-powered military bases, and carbon-neutral naval platforms feature prominently in Turkey's summit presentation materials. By aligning its defense innovation narrative with NATO's climate change and security agenda, Turkey aims to position itself as a forward-looking partner invested in the alliance's long-term sustainability, not just its immediate military requirements.
Turkey's multivector foreign policy: Asset or liability for NATO
The Ankara summit will inevitably confront the question that has troubled some Western capitals: Is Turkey's increasingly independent foreign policy compatible with NATO membership? Turkey's deepening economic ties with BRICS nations, its dialogue partnership with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and its continued energy cooperation with Russia have fueled concerns about a potential strategic realignment. Turkish officials reject this framing, arguing that the binary Cold War logic of 'with us or against us' is obsolete in a multipolar world where middle powers must maintain diverse relationships to protect their interests.
Ankara's counter-argument is that Turkey's unique network of relationships — spanning from Beijing to Moscow to African capitals — represents a strategic asset for NATO, not a liability. As the alliance contemplates the implications of China's rise and the shifting global balance of power, Turkey's ability to engage with non-Western powers provides NATO with insights and channels of communication that other members lack. The summit will test whether this argument resonates with allies who remain skeptical of Turkey's balancing act.
Reforming NATO command: Turkey's bid for institutional power
Turkey's most ambitious summit proposal involves the creation of a dedicated NATO Southern Command, with headquarters in either Ankara or İzmir, a major Turkish city on the Aegean coast. Turkish military planners argue that the alliance's Cold War-era command structure — heavily weighted toward the Central European front — fails to address the hybrid threats concentrated on the southern flank: terrorism, irregular migration, energy supply disruptions, and climate-induced instability. A Southern Command led by a Turkish general would institutionalize Ankara's influence within NATO's decision-making hierarchy and recognize the strategic weight Turkey has long claimed.
The proposal faces resistance from some allies who view it as a power grab, but Turkey's persistence reflects a broader ambition. No longer content with the role of a loyal but peripheral ally, Turkey is demanding recognition as a co-architect of the alliance's future. Whether the Ankara summit delivers this transformation or exposes the limits of Turkish influence will shape not just NATO's trajectory, but the broader contours of the emerging global security order. The negotiations in July will reveal whether the alliance can accommodate a rising power within its ranks — or whether Turkey's ambitions will ultimately test the bonds that have held NATO together for 77 years.
