Türkiye's central bank raises its 2026 inflation forecast to 28%
The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye raised its year-end 2026 inflation forecast to 28% in its third Inflation Report of the year, published on August 13, 2026. The estimate had stood at 26% in the previous report, meaning the latest projection was revised upward by two percentage points. The bank kept its forecasts of 15% for the end of 2027 and 9% for the end of 2028. It said inflation is intended to stabilize around the 5% target over the medium term.
Governor Fatih Karahan presented the report at the Istanbul Financial Center. The announced path is a conditional institutional forecast rather than a guaranteed outcome. It rests on assumptions that include maintaining a tight monetary stance and continued coordination among economic policies. The 28% figure should therefore be read as the central bank's current year-end projection under its stated baseline, not as a promise or a fixed target.
Food and import-price assumptions were revised
The presentation shows that the bank increased its assumption for year-end food-price inflation in 2026 from 26.3% to 28.5%. The presentation also shows that assumptions for import prices, oil prices and export-weighted global growth were reassessed using the latest data available to the bank.
Those changes indicate that the forecast revision was not attributed to a single price category. The presentation identified energy prices, disruptions in global supply chains, food supply and cost dynamics as important risk areas. The central bank said geopolitical developments could keep oil prices either above or below its baseline assumptions. For food, possible supply shocks affecting fruit, vegetables, milk and meat were presented as risks that could change the outlook.
The monetary-policy message remained firm
The central bank repeated that it would maintain a tight monetary-policy stance until price stability is achieved. Under its framework, inflation outcomes, the underlying trend and expectations will be monitored, while the degree of tightness required by the disinflation process will be maintained in line with interim targets. The presentation also said credit growth had slowed recently and that measures of risk and volatility had declined.
Bloomberg HT's coverage of the briefing confirmed that the 2026 forecast was lifted from 26% to 28%. It also reported that the interim target for 2026 remained at 24%, while the 2027 interim target stayed at 15%. Anadolu Agency separately reported Karahan's forecasts of 15% for the end of 2027 and 9% for the end of 2028.
How should the report be read?
The Inflation Report is one of the central bank's principal documents for explaining its assessment of price developments. The new path does not mechanically determine future Monetary Policy Committee decisions. It does, however, show which risks the bank is emphasizing and which assumptions underpin its forecast. For market participants, the higher food-price assumption, the energy outlook and the continued commitment to tight policy are the main takeaways.
Until the next Inflation Report is published, incoming inflation data, expectations, credit indicators and global commodity prices will help determine whether the path set out in the August report remains appropriate. Any comparison should distinguish between the bank's conditional forecast, its interim targets and realized consumer inflation, because they serve different purposes in the policy framework.
