Türkiye has set out its main economic targets for 2027 in the Presidential Annual Programme published in a supplementary issue of the Official Gazette on October 27. Prepared by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance and the Presidency of Strategy and Budget, the programme projects economic growth of 4.2%, year-end consumer inflation of 21% and an increase of 657,000 people in employment during 2027.
The document estimates that the economy will grow by 3.3% in 2026 and that year-end inflation will be 28.4%. The official scenario therefore combines faster growth next year with a further slowdown in price increases. The figures are policy targets and planning assumptions, not results that have already been achieved.
Employment and trade targets
The unemployment rate is projected to edge down from an estimated 8.1% in 2026 to 8% in 2027. The programme expects the planned increase in employment to accompany the stronger growth rate. This framework assumes that economic expansion will translate into job creation while producing only a modest decline in the unemployment rate.
For foreign trade, exports are forecast to rise from $282 billion at the end of 2026 to $292 billion in 2027. Imports are projected to increase from $387 billion to $397 billion over the same period, leaving the trade deficit at an estimated $105 billion. The numbers indicate that the government expects export growth but also assumes that imports will remain at a high level.
The current-account deficit is targeted to narrow from an estimated $47.5 billion in 2026 to $38.5 billion in 2027, equivalent to 1.9% of gross domestic product. The programme links this expected improvement to continued export growth, an assumed decline in energy prices and the contribution of services income, among other factors.
Green and digital transformation
The Presidency of Strategy and Budget said the Annual Programme covers sectoral policies and implementation measures in addition to fiscal and macroeconomic objectives. It connects the 2027 agenda to the Twelfth Development Plan through priorities including stable growth, competitive production, green and digital transformation, skilled human resources, disaster-resilient settlements and good governance.
The programme calls for support for technology-intensive production, a stronger research and innovation ecosystem, broader use of advanced technologies — particularly artificial intelligence — in production processes, and policies intended to reduce import dependence. These goals do not represent a single completed project or one dedicated budget item. They provide an official direction for multiple measures to be implemented by public institutions.
The plan combines the growth objective with a further reduction in inflation. It emphasizes coordination between monetary, fiscal and incomes policies while also calling for structural measures that raise productive capacity. This signals that the official approach includes investment, productivity and technology-focused supply policies in addition to measures affecting demand. The degree of progress, however, will only become clear through data releases and implementation decisions made during the year.
Quarterly monitoring of measures
According to the Strategy and Budget Presidency, the programme includes concrete and measurable activities intended to be completed within a one-year period. The measures will be monitored and evaluated every three months, creating a regular process for checking whether institutions are carrying out the planned steps. The monitoring results should make gaps between targets and actual developments visible during the year and provide a basis for assessing institutional implementation.
The Annual Programme defines the government’s central economic scenario for 2027, but the final outcome will depend on domestic demand, global growth, energy prices, external financing conditions and the course of monetary and fiscal policy. For that reason, the 4.2% growth and 21% inflation figures should be read as official benchmarks against which next year’s policies and results can be assessed, rather than guaranteed outcomes.
