The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s benchmark for globally traded food commodities rose 1.5% month on month to 136.0 points in September 2026. The index was 5.8% above its level a year earlier, while remaining 15.1% below the record reached in March 2022. Reuters reported that the September reading was the highest since November 2022. The latest figures point to renewed pressure in international food markets, led by cereals, sugar and vegetable oils.
FAO said transportation disruptions and weather-related supply concerns were the main forces behind the monthly increase. Logistical constraints in the Black Sea region complicated wheat and maize trade, while dry conditions in parts of North America affected expectations ahead of winter wheat planting. Uncertainty surrounding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz also reinforced concerns about fuel, fertilizer and freight costs, supporting prices for commodities that can be used as biofuel feedstocks.
The FAO Cereal Price Index increased 5.1% from August and stood 17.2% above its September 2025 level. World wheat prices rose 6.3% during the month, while maize prices advanced 5.6%. FAO linked the wheat increase to Black Sea logistical problems and dry North American weather. It attributed the rise in maize to lower-than-expected yield prospects in the United States, reduced export availability from Brazil and disruptions to Black Sea trade. The All Rice Price Index also increased 1.4% as weather concerns and seasonally tighter supplies lifted Indica quotations.
Sugar recorded the strongest monthly move among the major groups. The FAO Sugar Price Index climbed 6.1%, its third consecutive monthly increase. The agency cited expectations for tighter supplies in the 2026/27 season, including lower projected output in Thailand, below-normal rainfall and strengthening El Niño conditions in India, heavy rain in Brazil’s Centre-South growing region, and a smaller area planted with sugar beet in the European Union.
Vegetable oil prices rose 0.9% from August. Strong global import demand and concern that dry weather could weaken production prospects in Southeast Asia pushed palm oil quotations higher. Sunflower oil moved in the opposite direction as expectations for ample supplies weighed on prices, although ongoing logistical constraints limited the decline. The overall vegetable oil index was 18.3% higher than a year earlier.
Not every component of the food basket increased. The Meat Price Index fell 1.1% as abundant export supplies reduced pig and poultry meat prices. Brazilian bovine meat export quotations rose on stronger demand from the United States, while ovine meat prices were broadly stable. The Dairy Price Index slipped 0.1% because lower cheese prices slightly outweighed gains in milk powder, with butter prices changing little.
In a separate supply-and-demand update released the same day, FAO forecast global cereal production in 2026 at 2.979 billion tonnes. That would be 2.1% below the 2025 peak but still the second-largest harvest on record. The agency raised its wheat estimate because of improved weather in Australia, but reduced its outlook for coarse grains as hot and dry conditions weakened yield prospects in the European Union and the United States. Reuters also reported that FAO lowered its forecast for world cereal trade in 2026/27 by 0.7% from the previous month.
FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero said pressure was building across energy, transport and key food commodities. The agency warned that persistent increases could eventually pass through to consumer food prices, particularly in countries dependent on food and energy imports. The FAO index does not directly measure prices paid in national supermarkets. It tracks monthly changes in international quotations for five major commodity groups, making it an indicator of global supply, trade and cost conditions rather than a direct reading of household inflation.
