Türkiye’s preliminary merchandise trade figures for September showed a double-digit increase in exports and a marked narrowing of the monthly trade deficit. According to General Trade System data published by the Ministry of Trade on October 3, 2026, exports rose 15.4 percent from a year earlier to $25.976 billion. Imports increased 5.9 percent over the same period to $31.208 billion. Total foreign trade volume therefore expanded 10 percent to $57.185 billion.
Monthly deficit falls 24.8 percent
Because exports grew faster than imports, the September trade deficit contracted 24.8 percent year on year to $5.232 billion. The deficit had stood at $6.957 billion in the same month of 2025. The export-to-import coverage ratio improved by 6.8 percentage points to 83.2 percent. Excluding energy, the coverage ratio reached 100.3 percent, while the figure excluding both energy and gold was 97.7 percent.
The monthly improvement should be read alongside the more mixed cumulative picture. In the January-September period, exports increased 5.2 percent to $210.973 billion, while imports rose 5.4 percent to $281.998 billion. The nine-month foreign trade deficit consequently widened 5.8 percent to $71.025 billion. The export-to-import coverage ratio for the first nine months was 74.8 percent.
Manufacturing remains the main export engine
Manufactured goods accounted for 93 percent of September exports, with a value of $24.168 billion, according to the ministry’s data. Agriculture, forestry and fishing contributed 3.5 percent, while mining and quarrying represented 2.5 percent. Germany was Türkiye’s largest export market at roughly $2 billion, followed by the United Kingdom and the United States.
On the import side, China ranked first with $5.267 billion. Imports from Germany totaled $2.248 billion and purchases from the United States reached $1.776 billion. The ten leading supplier countries together represented 49 percent of total imports. The breakdown illustrates that the trade balance depends not only on export growth but also on energy costs and domestic demand for intermediate and investment goods.
Figures are preliminary
The September numbers come from the Ministry of Trade’s preliminary monthly bulletin. More detailed and final foreign trade statistics will be released later by the Turkish Statistical Institute together with the ministry. The current figures may therefore be affected by later revisions as well as temporary price, calendar and shipment effects.
Even with that caveat, the faster rise in exports than imports, the smaller monthly deficit and the higher coverage ratio provide a positive short-term signal for Türkiye’s external trade position. The fact that the cumulative nine-month deficit remained above the previous year’s level also shows why one strong month cannot be treated as a complete shift in the annual trend.
Energy prices, demand conditions in Türkiye’s main European export markets and the economy’s need for imported production inputs will remain central variables in the coming months. The next releases will show whether September’s improvement was sustained and whether the gap between monthly and cumulative performance begins to close.
Indicators to watch
Assessing whether the improvement lasts will require more than headline totals. Export unit values, order trends and the distribution of sales across markets will also matter. Growth conditions in Europe can affect Türkiye’s main export channels, while energy and commodity prices can change the import bill. Currency movements may influence export receipts and the cost of imported inputs at the same time, so their impact should not be treated as one-directional.
The preliminary release will also be compared with the final data calendar. If the main figures are confirmed, the smaller monthly deficit would provide a stronger starting point for the final quarter. The higher cumulative deficit nevertheless means that businesses and policymakers still need to follow the year-to-date picture rather than relying on September alone.
