Türkiye has published its Medium-Term Program for 2027–2029, setting out a common framework for growth, inflation, unemployment and public finances over the next three years. According to the official document released by the Presidency of Strategy and Budget, economic policy aims to strengthen growth gradually while moving toward price stability. The figures are targets and assumptions rather than guaranteed outcomes, and they provide a benchmark for evaluating government policy and incoming economic data.
A gradually stronger growth path
The program puts the 2026 growth estimate at 3.3%. It then targets economic growth of 4.2% in 2027, 4.6% in 2028 and 5% in 2029. This trajectory assumes that activity can recover while maintaining a balance between domestic demand, production and exports. Whether the targets are met will depend on several variables, including global trade, external financing conditions, energy prices and the domestic investment environment.
The program does not treat headline growth as the only measure of progress. Its broader policy approach also emphasizes productivity, technology, skilled employment and export capacity as parts of an economic transformation. For that reason, the composition of investment, the structure of production and the pace at which public policies are implemented will matter alongside the annual growth rates.
Aiming for single-digit inflation
The 2026 year-end inflation estimate is listed at 28.4%. The program then targets inflation of 21% in 2027, 13.5% in 2028 and 9% in 2029. The sequence indicates that officials expect disinflation to occur gradually over three years rather than through a sudden adjustment. It also raises the importance of coordination between monetary policy, fiscal policy and expectations in the wider economy.
The inflation path is especially important for households and companies. A sustained slowdown in price increases could improve purchasing-power visibility and make planning easier. However, the gap between targets and actual outcomes will also be influenced by food, energy, rent and service prices, as well as exchange-rate movements and inflation expectations. Monthly readings therefore need to be considered together with the medium-term trend.
Unemployment and the budget balance
The program estimates unemployment at 8.1% in 2026. It targets 8% in 2027, 7.8% in 2028 and 7.6% in 2029. This gradual improvement suggests that the expected acceleration in growth would feed into the labor market over time. The quality of newly created jobs and changes in labor-force participation will be important when assessing whether the headline unemployment rate represents a durable improvement.
On public finances, the budget deficit is projected at 3.1% of gross domestic product in 2026. The ratio is targeted at 3.5% in 2027 before declining to 2.8% by 2029. That path reflects an attempt to balance near-term spending needs with medium-term fiscal discipline. Revenue performance and the composition of public expenditure will be central to whether those budget objectives are achieved.
How the program should be read
A medium-term program is best understood as a road map, not a final scorecard. Its assumptions will serve as a common reference for public institutions preparing budgets, investments and reform plans. Markets and businesses will judge it through the internal consistency of the targets, the implementation measures announced in coming months and the economic data that follow.
The publication also gives businesses and public institutions a shared forecasting framework. Companies can use the indicators when reviewing investment, financing and hiring plans, while government bodies will align budget proposals with the program's assumptions. Even so, the likelihood of meeting each target will be reassessed as new data and additional measures emerge. Regular, comparable reporting will be essential for judging credibility and identifying where policy adjustments may be needed.
The main policy challenge is to accelerate growth while bringing inflation down and preserving fiscal balance. Progress will depend not only on the announced numbers but also on predictable policymaking and consistent execution. Inflation, output, employment and budget data released during the program period will therefore be compared regularly with this official path. Any significant shift in global conditions or domestic policy could lead to revisions, making transparent monitoring an important part of the process.
